Our weather pattern will become unsettled through the Memorial Day weekend, bringing scattered rain chances to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. When will it rain?
INDIANA, USA — NEW UPDATE: Carb Day is looking better with scattered storm chances mainly after 5 p.m. Scattered downpours and storms are still likely race day. We get more into the weeds down below.
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We are tracking on-and-off rain chances for the Indy 500 and the events leading up to the big race this year. As an upper level low pressure system moves into the Plains, it will kick up scattered storm chances for Indiana with sunshine in between. Let's take a look day-by-day on the rain forecast.
Key takeaways
- We have some days that are going to be amazing with beautiful weather!
- Scattered storms for Friday (Carb Day) mainly after 4 p.m.
- On-and-off scattered downpours for race day, some severe threats in the late afternoon/evening
- Breaks in the rain are possible
Update from 13News Meteorologist Sean Ash
— Sean Ash (@SeanAshWX) May 23, 2024Today: sun with iso. pop-ups south of I-70 later
Carb Day: warm & mainly sunny BUT keep an eye on radar toward end of concerts for approaching storms
Saturday: mainly sunny
Race Day: showers/storms around but timing of greatest coverage uncertain. Late-day storms may be severe pic.twitter.com/NrGByqdinx
General weather setup
We are tracking an area of deeper pressure and a stronger jet stream coming into the West Coast. It's a circle of energy that will evolve and produce rounds of rain and thunderstorm chances for Indiana later this week. Once it passes over the Rocky Mountains, we'll have a better idea on the timing for specific rain chances.
Credit: WTHR
This low pressure will likely break into two lobes, one piece of energy swinging through Friday and another on Saturday. That should help break up the rain chances.
Credit: WTHR
Friday - Miller Lite Carb Day
- Scattered rain and storm chances increase later in the day (20% chance a.m. to 50% chance p.m.)
- Highs in the upper 70s
Overall, the trend is drier for Friday, but the scattered storms after 4 p.m. could be stronger in spots across central Indiana.
Timing 1 (morning): A boundary may still be sitting over central Indiana. Expect a mix of sun and clouds. A stray shower is possible. Hopefully we get pretty lucky in the morning!
Timing 2 (late afternoon / evening): After some sunshine, a cold front arriving from the west will spark more downpours and storms. Some of these storms may have gusty winds, but expect the coverage to be scattered. Not everyone will get a storm. There is a level 2 (out of 5) severe risk for the p.m. hours. Be on the lookout for these from 4 p.m. through 10 p.m.
Credit: WTHR
Spotty showers are possible in the morning and early afternoon. Later in the day, especially near sunset, scattered storm chances will pick up.
The large green and yellow shapes on the map, underneath the radar, show the level 1 and 2 severe zones, respectively. Some of these cells later in the day and evening may have some bits of hail and gusty winds.
Credit: WTHR
Saturday - 500 Festival Parade
- Mainly sunny, few clouds on-and-off
- Highs in the low 80s
This should be a nice day overall! Expect mostly sunny skies with slightly less humidity. Enjoy!
Credit: WTHR
Sunday - Indianapolis 500 Race Day
- Scattered rain and severe storm chances (70% chance)
- It won't rain constantly all day, but some heavy downpours and nasty storms are possible, especially later in the day.
- Highs in the mid-70s
This is a very early look at rain chances for Race Day. We are fairly confident that rain chances will hit Sunday as a low pressure moves in. However, we are not confident on the timing of the rain and timing of the breaks.
A warm front should push into Indiana Sunday morning, bringing warmer and more humid weather. It may also bring some scattered showers and rumbles of thunder.
Later in the day, expect scattered storms to develop, some of them severe. The National Weather Service has put the majority of Indiana in an early severe risk threat. There does seem to be rotation in the storms that develop.
Credit: WTHR
- Sunday late morning: Scattered heavy rain and lightning, severe threats are low
- Sunday afternoon: More questionable ... We could get some breaks surrounded by downpours and storms
- Sunday evening: Scattered strong/severe storms move in with a tornado threat
Credit: WTHR
The morning and early afternoon rain will be driven by the warm front. We are still not exactly sure its position. Scattered rain and thunder is likely with the warm front. If it comes early, then the break in the afternoon may be bigger. If it comes later, it could bring a heavy push of rain and storms during race time.
Credit: WTHR
The late evening rain and storm chance will come from the cold front. These thunderstorms will likely have gusty winds with some chances for hail and tornadoes.
An early severe zone map has been posted by the Storm Prediction Center. Individual storms could be nasty later in the evening on Sunday.
Credit: WTHR
Will it rain during the race?
That is the big question. We think there will be rain chances, at least during parts of the race schedule on Sunday.
Could there be breaks? Yes.
Could the scattered storms avoid the track and hit other parts of Indiana? Yes.
Could we get some good downpours and thunder at the track? Yes.
We know that the day looks active with rain and storm chances, but we are still working on figuring out when to expect the rain. Right now, we could pick up 0.3" to 1" of rain Sunday. We also need to be on the lookout for severe weather. Some of the scattered storms could have lightning, hail, wind and even some rotation. The highest chance for severe weather will be after 6 p.m.
Check back for updates. This is an evolving forecast.
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